Wrapping Film Prices Continue to Rise: The Supply Chain Transmission Behind Soaring Raw Materials

# 缠绕膜价格持续上涨：原料飙升背后的产业链传导

**Wrapping Film Prices Continue to Rise: The Supply Chain Transmission Behind Soaring Raw Materials**

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近期，缠绕膜市场迎来新一轮涨价潮。多家膜厂密集上调报价，下游客户采购成本明显增加。这轮价格上涨并非偶然，而是从原油到聚乙烯、再到缠绕膜的全产业链成本传导的结果。

Recently, the wrapping film market has ushered in a new wave of price increases. Multiple film manufacturers have intensively raised their quotes, significantly increasing procurement costs for downstream customers. This round of price hikes is not accidental, but rather the result of cost transmission across the entire supply chain—from crude oil to polyethylene, and then to wrapping film.

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## 一、原油端的“黑天鹅”：地缘冲突引爆成本炸弹

**I. The "Black Swan" on the Crude Oil Side: Geopolitical Conflict Detonates a Cost Bomb**

2026年以来，中东地缘冲突持续升级，霍尔木兹海峡运输受阻，全球约50%的乙烯和聚乙烯产能受到直接冲击。世界银行报告指出，这是“有记录以来最大的石油供应冲击”。

Since the beginning of 2026, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have continued to escalate. Transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, directly impacting approximately 50% of global ethylene and polyethylene production capacity. The World Bank report states that this is "the largest oil supply shock on record."

布伦特原油价格从2月底的每桶72美元飙升至3月底的每桶118美元，涨幅超过60%。成本压力沿着产业链迅速传导：石脑油→乙烯→聚乙烯→缠绕膜，每一环都在承压。

Brent crude oil prices surged from $72 per barrel at the end of February to $118 per barrel at the end of March, an increase of over 60%. Cost pressures rapidly transmitted along the supply chain: naphtha → ethylene → polyethylene → wrapping film, with every link under pressure.

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## 二、聚乙烯：涨价潮的核心战场

**II. Polyethylene: The Core Battleground of Price Hikes**

聚乙烯是缠绕膜的主要原料，其价格走势直接决定膜价方向。

Polyethylene is the primary raw material for wrapping film, and its price trend directly determines the direction of film prices.

**国际巨头率先调涨。** 美国陶氏化学4月将聚乙烯价格每磅上调30美分（涨幅约60%），5月再涨20美分。埃克森美孚、利安德巴塞尔等企业纷纷跟进。

**International giants led the way.** Dow Chemical raised polyethylene prices by 30 cents per pound (approximately 60%) in April, followed by another 20-cent increase in May. ExxonMobil, LyondellBasell, and other companies followed suit.

**国内市场全线跟涨。** 国内聚乙烯现货价格主流品种周度涨幅在165至483元/吨之间，部分牌号涨幅更为明显。

**Domestic market followed across the board.** The weekly increase for mainstream domestic polyethylene spot prices ranged from 165 to 483 yuan per ton, with some grades showing even more significant increases.

**进口货源明显收紧。** 中东地区占全球聚乙烯出口的40%以上，航运受阻后，进口量预估减少约15%，短期内难以弥补缺口。

**Imported supply tightened significantly.** The Middle East accounts for over 40% of global polyethylene exports. With shipping disrupted, import volumes are estimated to have decreased by approximately 15%, and the gap is difficult to fill in the short term.

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## 三、缠绕膜：被动涨价，利润承压

**III. Wrapping Film: Passive Price Increases, Profit Under Pressure**

缠绕膜作为聚乙烯的下游制品，价格调整是被动跟随的结果。

As a downstream product of polyethylene, wrapping film price adjustments are a passive consequence.

**涨幅不及原料。** 多家行业机构分析显示，膜价涨幅并未完全覆盖原料涨幅，部分薄膜产品已处于亏损状态。

**Price increases lag behind raw materials.** Analyses from multiple industry institutions show that film price increases have not fully covered raw material cost increases, with some film products already operating at a loss.

**需求端承接乏力。** 终端企业对高价原料的承接意愿偏弱，市场以刚需成交为主，大批量备货意愿不足。

**Weak demand-side acceptance.** End-user enterprises show limited willingness to accept high-priced raw materials. The market is dominated by rigid-demand transactions, with insufficient willingness for large-scale stockpiling.

**季节性需求启动。** 进入9月，包装膜行业逐步向传统旺季过渡，电商快递、食品礼盒等领域备货订单释放，膜厂排产提升，需求回暖与供应偏紧形成叠加。

**Seasonal demand picking up.** Entering September, the packaging film industry is gradually transitioning into its traditional peak season. Stocking orders from e-commerce express delivery, food gift boxes, and other sectors are being released. Film manufacturers are increasing production schedules, with recovering demand overlapping with tight supply.

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## 四、后市展望：短期偏强，关注变量

**IV. Market Outlook: Short-Term Strength, Key Variables to Watch**

综合各方信息，短期内缠绕膜价格预计维持偏强运行。

Based on comprehensive information from various sources, wrapping film prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the short term.

**支撑因素：** 原油价格高位运行、聚乙烯供应偏紧、社会库存处于近年同期低位、传统旺季需求释放。

**Supporting factors:** Crude oil prices remain elevated, polyethylene supply is tight, social inventories are at low levels compared to recent years, and traditional peak-season demand is being released.

**风险变量：** 地缘局势变化、原油价格回调、下游对高价原料的接受程度、新增产能投放节奏。

**Risk variables:** Changes in the geopolitical situation, crude oil price corrections, downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials, and the pace of new production capacity coming online.

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## 五、给采购商的建议

**V. Recommendations for Purchasers**

面对当前的价格环境，建议下游客户：

Given the current price environment, downstream customers are advised to:

**合理规划采购节奏。** 如有明确需求，可适当提前安排，避免因价格快速变动增加成本。

**Plan procurement rhythm reasonably.** If there is clear demand, arrangements can be appropriately advanced to avoid cost increases caused by rapid price fluctuations.

**关注原料市场走势。** 密切跟踪原油和聚乙烯价格变化，在价格相对平稳的窗口期进行适度备货。

**Stay informed on raw material market trends.** Closely monitor crude oil and polyethylene price changes, and make moderate stockpiling arrangements during relatively stable price windows.

**加强与供应商沟通。** 与膜厂保持密切沟通，根据用量和合作情况争取更有利的采购方案。

**Strengthen communication with suppliers.** Maintain close communication with film manufacturers and strive for more favorable procurement solutions based on usage volume and cooperation history.

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## 结语

**Conclusion**

缠绕膜价格上涨的本质，是全球能源供应链波动向下游传导的结果。在成本压力尚未缓解之前，价格调整仍将是产业链各环节的共同课题。

The essence of wrapping film price increases is the transmission of global energy supply chain fluctuations to downstream sectors. Before cost pressures ease, price adjustments will remain a shared challenge for all links in the supply chain.

对于采购方而言，理解涨价逻辑、把握采购节奏、与供应商保持透明沟通，是当前环境下更为务实的应对策略。

For purchasers, understanding the logic behind price increases, grasping procurement timing, and maintaining transparent communication with suppliers are more pragmatic strategies in the current environment.

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*数据来源：世界银行、卓创资讯、隆众资讯、我的钢铁网等公开行业信息*

*Data Sources: World Bank, SCI99, Longzhong Information, Mysteel, and other public industry information*